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Situation and perspectives in the Arab world: What are the opportunities for France? – The Franco-Arab Chamber of Commerce (National Assembly on January 23)

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Last Monday, together with Guy, my father, I attended a fascinating conference at the National Assembly, on this Arab spring which looks down on the change of seasons, as it began almost a year ago (in the middle of winter). The crazy events in this area took place exactly at a time when Pentalog (IT services company) was finally considering entering this new culture.
Everybody is thinking of the fall of Gaddafi, so easily achieved in the end. One may wonder why nobody did it at the time of UTA’s DC10 or of Lockerbie. There were even more legitimate reasons to act in those days, as there were real acts of war against the West. At the same time last year, who would have thought that NATO would declare war on Libya several months later or that Egyptian prosecutors would ask for the death sentence for Mubarak? Here we are; this acceleration and possible extension of the Arab spring raises questions for every potential investor in the MENA region.

All the important people who attended the event, experienced investors, ambassadors, but also Jean-Paul Betbèze (Senior Economist for Crédit Agricole), Pascal Boniface from IRIS, Nicolas Sarkis (director of Arab Petroleum Research Center), Christophe Lecourtier (executive director of Ubifrance), Hervé de Charrette (Chirac’s Minister of Foreign Affairs), have, I think, raised this issue.

The situation in Arab countries ranges from a high level of control in Morocco to total confusion in Egypt, or even more so in Yemen. And what is the future of immobile regimes such as in Saudi Arabia or Qatar? The latter is on everyone’s lips and seems to be the focus of all the political observers’ comments. The Islamic parties, such as Enhada in Tunisia or the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, would be the instruments of a political and diplomatic machine (some say it is a Mafia organization) the commanders of which could be in Doha, London and Washington.
In short, there are many reasons for us to think this is far from over, or even not so spontaneous.

Whatever the case may be about Tunisia, we were all surprised by this revolution without a leader. It wasn’t religious and not even Pan-Arabian! Better still, it gave birth to a fantastic progress: the first transparent and democratic elections. The still flimsy tourism sector accounts for the lowest levels of foreign exchange reserves, while the exports of goods and services are on the increase. Even better, the petrol price maintained at high levels because of regional instability has enabled Tunisian textile products to regain market shares against China, as the route is shorter to European markets. As a result, this nice country hasn’t even entered recession in 2011!

Finally, there is reassuring news for investors regarding Maghreb. Couldn’t Moderate Islamist parties, which have gained new importance, be compared with Christian Democratic parties, which have gained importance in Eastern Europe after the fall of the Wall? Why should this be too far-fetched? After all, Ennahdha seems to be of liberal orientation regarding the economic sector. The leaders keep on praising the qualities of British liberalism! It is highly unlikely that company executives should dislike such a speech ! Furthermore, practically all the speakers supported the idea that the French media have overreacted to the arrival of religious parties. These countries, just as the Far East slightly before it, simply turns the page from Western omnipotence while attempting to lay down the founding rules of a new civil Islam, in a dialog on an equal footing on commercial, political and diplomatic issues with the Judeo-Christian West. Why not?

 

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